Kev lag luam tshawb fawb lub tuam txhab Light Counting tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm nws cov kev kwv yees rau kev lag luam kho qhov muag los ntawm 2024 txog 2028, thiab hauv kev lag luam tam sim no poob qis, qhov kev kwv yees no sawv tawm rau nws qhov kev cia siab.
Qhov kev thov rau kev sib txuas kho qhov muag tau pib poob qis hauv ib nrab xyoo 2022, ua rau muaj kev nce hauv cov khoom muag hauv cov khoom siv. Kev kwv yees rau lub lag luam no tseem ceeb tsis txaus ntseeg tsuas yog rau lub hlis dhau los. Cov kws tshaj lij kho qhov muag thiab cov cuab yeej tsim khoom lag luam tau tshaj tawm qhov kev ua haujlwm tseem ceeb poob qis ua ntej lub xyoo no, thiab kev lag luam kev pom zoo rau ib nrab xyoo no thiab txawm tias xyoo tom ntej tsis zoo. Kev lag luam kev coj ncaj ncees tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm AI hardware craze sparked los ntawm NVIDIA. Ob peb lub hlis dhau los, Google thiab ntau lub tuam txhab huab tau nce kev nqis peev hauv AI tes hauj lwm. Tam sim ntawd, kev kwv yees rau qhov kev thov hauv 2024 tau nce ntxiv. 4x100G thiab 8x100G optical modules yog nyob rau hauv kev thov siab.
Raws li pom hauv daim duab hauv qab no, kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2023 tau teeb tsa, tab sis xyoo tom ntej Ethernet optical module muag khoom yuav tsum loj hlob los ntawm 30%. Lwm qhov chaw yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov lossis muaj kev loj hlob me me hauv kev sib piv. Tshaj li tsib xyoos tom ntej no, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kho qhov muag yuav tuav tau 16% CAGR, nrog kev kwv yees 6% YoY poob rau xyoo 2023.
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, thiab lwm lub tuam txhab huab tau cia siab tias yuav ua rau cov kev thov rau cov ntawv thov AI tshiab, ua rau muaj kev nqis peev tseem ceeb hauv AI cov khoom siv. Qhov no yuav tsav qhov kev thov nce ntxiv rau 400G, 800G, thiab AOC, qhia txog kev ua lag luam rau 400ZR / ZR + thiab tom qab 800ZR / ZR + optical modules xyoo tom ntej.
Piv nrog rau yuav luag ob npaug ntawm cov tuam txhab huab cua 'CAPEX thaum peb lub xyoos ntawm kev sib kis, CAPEX rau 15 ICPs saum toj kawg nkaus tsuas yog xav tias yuav loj hlob 1% hauv 2023. Txawm li cas los xij, AI network kev nqis peev hauv 2023 ua rau feem ntau ntawm tag nrho. CAPEX. Tshwj tsis yog tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, nws xav tias cov tuam txhab huab yuav rov pib nqis peev tseem ceeb tom qab 2024, tab sis nws tseem tsis tau paub meej tias nws yuav mus txog qhov kev loj hlob ntawm ob tus lej.
Telecom cov tswv lag luam cov phiaj xwm peev rau xyoo 2023 yuav tsum txo qis 4% vim tsis muaj cov nyiaj tau los tshiab. Yuav tsis muaj qhov xav tau loj hlob hauv cov haujlwm no nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, txawm hais tias muaj kev xa tawm ntau ntxiv ntawm 5G. Rau cov neeg ua haujlwm, cov kev pabcuam huab yog lawv qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws. Cov neeg siv khoom lag luam loj xav tau kev sib txuas siab, thiab qhov kev xav tau ntawm bandwidth ntawm cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab thiab cov neeg siv khoom yuav coj cov hauv kev tshiab rau cov kev pabcuam qis-latency broadband. Cov neeg ua haujlwm yuav tsum tau nqis peev ntxiv rau hauv kev nkag mus thiab hauv nroog network kom tau raws li qhov xav tau no.